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24 November 2008Nature, edited by Infection Research
„Google Flu Trends“ - Search engine detects influenza epidemics
Google search query data can be used to estimate countrywide flu activity. The automated system that has already been tested successfully in the United States detects influenza epidemics two week earlier than traditional systems. It thus „may become an important line of defence against future influenca epidemics in the United States, and perhaps eventually in international settings“, Jeremy Ginsberg of Google Inc. and colleagues write in the journal „Nature“.
The system builds on the fact, that more and more people use the worldwide web to search information about specific diseases and medical problems. Previous research already found that search queries containing the words „influenza“ or „flu“ correlate with influenza surveillance data, spuring the idea, that search queries can be used to monitor disease outbreaks.
Ginsberg et al. now used an automated method of discovering influenza-related search queries from 5 years of Google web search. Next, they measured how effectively a given search term correlates with the percentage of physician visits in which a patient presents with influenza-like symptoms. These data were provided by the Influenza Sentinel Provider Surveillance Network at the US Center for Disease Control and Preventions.
Using a combination of the highest-scoring queries as a variable in a linear model they were able to precisely estimate the current level of weekly influenza activity in each region of the United States – up to two weeks earlier than traditional surveillance systems. „Up-to-date influenza estimates may enable public health officials and health professionals to respond better to seasonal epidemics“, Ginsberg et al. write. They also note, that the system is not designed to replace traditional surveillance networks or to supplant laboratory-based diagnoses and surveillance. Increases in search activity, however, „may indicate a need for public health inquiry to identify the pathogen or pathogens involved.“
Google`s flu trend webpage
Free full text of the paper: Nature
Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data. Jeremy Ginsberg et al., Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature07634
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